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Nifty Update

Nifty Weekly.

Nifty Daily.

Nifty moved as Anticipated.

Showing signs of maturity.

In our previous post we mentioned that Nifty had the tendency to reach approx. 6245. Paying high respect to our target the Indian Benchmark Index reached 6239; which from here on seems to be a likely top. 

A close look at both the daily and weekly charts posted above clearly show that the ongoing Parabolic advance might have reached it's peak and with the developments in the last two days have shown great signs that the ongoing up move has high probability to reverse. Both the charts have one thing in common and that is the day when Nifty made its high of 6239, it was just at the channel which we have been following since day one of our posts.

The channel has been highly respected ever since it's beginning in 2009. Noticeably, 6239 is also the approximate level of 123.6% projection ( see the yellow dotted lines in the weekly chart ). Also, to bring into account is the movement of the two days prior to day when Nifty made its current high of 6239. It showed signs of bearishness but were not confirmed. 

Another factor to be counted is the ongoing channel in the daily chart. Nifty has been moving in this channel for quite a few trading sessions now and to confirm 6239 as a top, the index has to break this channel on the down side. But if bulls come in to regain control on the bottom of this channel then 6065-75 could prove to be an important level. Once this is broken on the downside the next target for Nifty could be approx. 6025. A further downside can potentially take Nifty around 5960.

Hence, to summarize it, the Short Term trend is on the negative, bearish sentiments prevails in both daily and intra-day charts, with 6065-75 as the first targets and then further till 6025. But at the point of time when our first target is achieved one needs to check whether the ongoing channel will continue or not. 

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Nifty Update

Nifty Daily.

Nifty moved as anticipated.

In our post dated 06th May 2013, we anticipated 6080 and 6150 as the next levels, which are now respectfully achieved. The index first reached it's first target at 6080 then took a pause and today achieved our second target. Even in yesterdays post we mentioned that Monday's sell off did not meant that the trend has reversed, because it was still intact.

But prior to moving ahead and defining the next levels, we would like to describe the meaning of the title of yesterday's post. It was headed as " Nifty in a Virtuous and Vicious Circle". A few of our readers have asked us to explain what it means. And hence on their request, here comes the description:
Virtuous and Vicious circle are basically used in economics. A chain of events happen whereby the virtuous brings the desired results but the vicious circle tends to cause harm to the ongoing chain of events.
Here in Nifty, the current up move is the Virtuous circle bringing favorable results while the trading sessions of Monday and Tuesday created a Vicious circle trying to damage the uptrend and drawing people on the negative. Hence, personifying our title.

However, as mentioned by us their was no damage done and Nifty came up with a deciding sharp rise today and achieving the targets.

From here on, 6180 will be taken as our first target and a point where Nifty might take a pause once again. And post that we can see Nifty trading approx. 6245. And, pointing it once again:

" Their is No Loss Of Momentum till date."

Therefore, do not get shaken by trading sessions like that on 13/05/2013 and trade in the direction of trend till it actually get reversed.


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Nifty Update

Nifty Daily.

Nifty in a Virtuous and Vicious Circle.

Monday's sharp sell off and today's moderate rise, has left Nifty in a chain of complex circumstances where on one hand we witnessed a steep fall and then a half hearted attempt by the bulls to regain their momentum. And the investor is left in a dilemma as to what's next for the Indian Benchmark Index.

Yes, Nifty seemed to have lost the ongoing upward momentum yesterday, but that sell off does not mean that the trend has reversed. It's just an indication that the bulls might have lost their strength as even today we saw the market falling from the days high. However, on the longer version we can just say that these can prove to signs of trend reversal which is still not confirmed.

Hence we currently stand on a road where the passengers do not know which path to follow. To give them the direction :
A close below 5920 will confirm U-turn for passenger, while a breakout above  6140 will make them continue their journey. Till then the journey will be at a halt and the passengers will be oscillating between these two levels just confirming their path ahead from bulls and bears.


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Nifty Update

Nifty Daily.

Nifty taking a breather.

The above chart clearly shows that Nifty is currently taking a breather before defining the next trend. The last two trading sessions have been quite range bound and no clear direction is evident from it.

Trading in stock market should not be done by randomness and should not be irrational. Hence we need to plan our trade. The present situation is a wait & watch game, with two important levels to watch for. Upside level being 6025 while one has to watch for 5930 on the downside. A breakout on either side will decide whether the current upside will continue or not.

If we get an upward breakout then the next target for Nifty will be approx. 6080 and then at 6150. While on the downside the targets will be levels of gaps. However, a look at the intra day charts show that Nifty is heading upwards and the previous high of 6025 can prove to be an important level.

In our previous post we mentioned that Bank Nifty is weak, and that's exactly what happened. Bank Nifty fell down till 12,139 and bounced back from a very important support today giving it's close at 12,340. Importantly in this entire fall, Nifty remained range bound.

Hence prudence says that prevention is better than cure, and one should wait for a breakout above 6025 or below 5930 to enter into a positional trade with Nifty itself defining it's move.


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