Nifty Update

Nifty Daily.

Bank Nifty Weekly.

Nifty, Bank Nifty and Elliott Waves.

We mentioned in our previous post that Nifty holds a very strong support around 5600 and the Indian benchmark index has the potential to bounce back from there. Nifty moved as anticipated and did not broke the shackles, instead took support from their and gave a rapid rally. We saw an intra-day low of 5556 but the total consensus of the market remained bullish, with bulls wiping out the bearish efforts. But what should have been the next move?

Here's a summary of our research report as published on 26th June 2013:-

Nifty and Bank nifty are forming a __________ relationship with each other. With Elliott waves highly impacting both the indices we would certainly prefer to take trades as per Elliott levels.

A close look at Nifty tells us that currently ____wave is in progress on daily charts while on the weekly charts the last advance till 6240 and the fall there after shows that ______ wave seems to take formation. Considering these two set ups we recommend to take a buy position till 5900 as our first target and then T2 till _____. Once Nifty takes a leg up and breaches T2, then we can see the benchmark index trading at _____. But only if T2 is broken, as both 5900 and T2 are quite strong Elliott levels and Nifty can potentially resume it's downtrend from there.

Now considering the weekly charts of Bank Nifty, we are currently witnessing the ______ formation of Elliott waves. This means that we can see a max.  ___% retracement of the the previous fall and Bank Nifty can rise within the range of _____ to _____.

Coming back to the _______ relationship forming between Nifty and Bank Nifty, the later might not move as quickly as former. And, if Nifty resumes it's downtrend after reaching it's first target i.e. 5900 or T2, we recommend to square off the buying position in Bank nifty as well. Because then we will not see Bank Nifty moving up to it's maximum level.

Since, Nifty and Bank Nifty are currently respecting the theory of Elliott waves so well, it seems very likely that Elliott levels thus derived shall be highly respected in the future and we will witness our targets again being met. But this up move will be quite sharp and no one knows from where exactly will market resume it's downtrend. It could be any of the above mentioned levels. Hence, we recommend to do partial profit booking at each level and trail your SL's ( the levels of SL shall be updated on time.)

As of the changes in the charts till date, Nifty will remain positive till 5800 is intact and our T2 and other targets are likely to be achieved. Once this is broken, we can witness our benchmark index trading at 5700-5750 where it can take support.

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Nifty Update

Nifty 60 mins.

Nifty Daily.

Nifty in a matured Downtrend.

In our previous post we mentioned that the uptrend has matured and that the downside has began. We also mentioned the levels to which the Indian benchmark index gave high respect and achieved all our targets. 

For now, lets observe the above two charts. Both charts have one thing in common and that is weakness all around. Both the 60 mins and the daily chart do show any kind of strength, leading to a free fall in the market.

With bears gaining power in all the sectors and stocks, at the time when Nifty was at approx. 6175, one could have said that the principle of Dow's theory  which says that the averages must confirm, was personified. For eg: If one looks at the Daily chart of Bank Nifty and Yes bank he could easily make out the co-relation between the two. Both have acted in a similar manner and broken down giving similar patterns.

I have personally felt by my years of experience in TA that with all the tools, methods and techniques available in our subject Dow Theory has always been the foundation for everything. Even after extensive and hard core study as well knowledge of complex studies like Elliott and Gann, the Dow theory has stood a class apart and has always helped me to keep things simple and achieve amazing results; with the above mentioned complex studies just acting as a helping hand to the basics.

In the 60 mins chart, we can see that nifty first broke it's downward channel bounced back a bit but just to complete the level of channel breakout and again coming back and moving in the same downward channel. The up move not moving above it's previous high again alerted us of a matured downtrend. Another important factor to notice is the movement of RSI during that period and the moving average acting as an significant tool. Price not sustaining on its highs and breaking the MA was convincing enough to make a selling position once again.

At this time even the daily chart broke it's symm. triangle, again confirming the principles of the Dow Theory. 

With all factors, saying just one thing: Sell.......Sell......Sell; one should be bearish on the Indian benchmark index. 

But the important questions which arises now is, till when will one continue to be bearish?

Yesterday, nifty closed at 5772. A break below that will lead it further down to approx. 5660 and then to approx. .......... However, the most important thing to be dealt with is the situation if Nifty retraces ...... than .......% of it's previous up move, i.e. if Nifty moves below ........ levels. If this breaks down, it will create disaster in the market. And then Nifty can even fall till ..........

Wait! Their is something else in between as well. And that is the formation of Elliott Waves on the daily chart, which shows that currently the fourth wave is in formation, which can retrace a maximum up to 5600. So, be cautious as this is the last level of the current wave formation. Nifty has a tendency to bounce back anytime before this level, which is now not so far. 

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Nifty Update

Nifty Daily.

Nifty Weekly.

Nifty on a Wing and a Prayer.

Closely observe the Nifty weekly chart. It tells us just one thing, that the Indian Benchmark Index is moving in a Greed and Fear cycle, with the investors ( mostly the late bulls ) joining hands & praying for the prices to go up while Nifty just managing to stick to the range of previous candle.

In our previous post we mentioned that Nifty is expected to fall approx. 5950-60 and the index paid high respect to our levels. Nifty made a low of 5936 and made a come back. The ongoing upward channel got broken and pushed the prices down to the levels mentioned by us. But this free fall from 6239 till 5936 made a big bearish candle on the weekly charts. From there on we saw a reversal and Nifty moved to it's 61.8% retracement of the fall. 

A close look at the daily chart tells us that during this price retracement, Nifty just managed to touch the channel line, but could not pierce it to bring back the momentum. Coming back to the title of our previous post we mentioned that Nifty has started showing signs of maturity. And yesterday's fall makes our view all the more strong. On such circumstances when market changes direction, the price movement shakes the investors by drawing them towards the panic camp.

Another factor to be noticed in both the weekly and daily charts is the bearish divergence ( see the pink dotted lines in the indicator.) A fall in the RSI on both the time frames makes the sentiments more bearish as if trying to say that this up move on the daily charts was probably the last effort by the bulls. And a fall in the GDP numbers just acted as a concrete factor to push the markets downwards. But this rally could not shake the weekly charts and price clustered within the range of the previous bearish candle.

From now on we can see the bearish sentiments prevailing even on the 60 mins chart, indicating a further downfall. As per the levels, a break below 5930 will push the markets towards the range of 5850-65. 

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Nifty Update

Nifty Weekly.

Nifty Daily.

Nifty moved as Anticipated.

Showing signs of maturity.

In our previous post we mentioned that Nifty had the tendency to reach approx. 6245. Paying high respect to our target the Indian Benchmark Index reached 6239; which from here on seems to be a likely top. 

A close look at both the daily and weekly charts posted above clearly show that the ongoing Parabolic advance might have reached it's peak and with the developments in the last two days have shown great signs that the ongoing up move has high probability to reverse. Both the charts have one thing in common and that is the day when Nifty made its high of 6239, it was just at the channel which we have been following since day one of our posts.

The channel has been highly respected ever since it's beginning in 2009. Noticeably, 6239 is also the approximate level of 123.6% projection ( see the yellow dotted lines in the weekly chart ). Also, to bring into account is the movement of the two days prior to day when Nifty made its current high of 6239. It showed signs of bearishness but were not confirmed. 

Another factor to be counted is the ongoing channel in the daily chart. Nifty has been moving in this channel for quite a few trading sessions now and to confirm 6239 as a top, the index has to break this channel on the down side. But if bulls come in to regain control on the bottom of this channel then 6065-75 could prove to be an important level. Once this is broken on the downside the next target for Nifty could be approx. 6025. A further downside can potentially take Nifty around 5960.

Hence, to summarize it, the Short Term trend is on the negative, bearish sentiments prevails in both daily and intra-day charts, with 6065-75 as the first targets and then further till 6025. But at the point of time when our first target is achieved one needs to check whether the ongoing channel will continue or not. 

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Nifty Update

Nifty Daily.

Nifty moved as anticipated.

In our post dated 06th May 2013, we anticipated 6080 and 6150 as the next levels, which are now respectfully achieved. The index first reached it's first target at 6080 then took a pause and today achieved our second target. Even in yesterdays post we mentioned that Monday's sell off did not meant that the trend has reversed, because it was still intact.

But prior to moving ahead and defining the next levels, we would like to describe the meaning of the title of yesterday's post. It was headed as " Nifty in a Virtuous and Vicious Circle". A few of our readers have asked us to explain what it means. And hence on their request, here comes the description:
Virtuous and Vicious circle are basically used in economics. A chain of events happen whereby the virtuous brings the desired results but the vicious circle tends to cause harm to the ongoing chain of events.
Here in Nifty, the current up move is the Virtuous circle bringing favorable results while the trading sessions of Monday and Tuesday created a Vicious circle trying to damage the uptrend and drawing people on the negative. Hence, personifying our title.

However, as mentioned by us their was no damage done and Nifty came up with a deciding sharp rise today and achieving the targets.

From here on, 6180 will be taken as our first target and a point where Nifty might take a pause once again. And post that we can see Nifty trading approx. 6245. And, pointing it once again:

" Their is No Loss Of Momentum till date."

Therefore, do not get shaken by trading sessions like that on 13/05/2013 and trade in the direction of trend till it actually get reversed.


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