Wednesday 20 March 2013

Nifty Update.


It's an Elliot's and Fibonacci's Nifty.


As witnessed by the Nifty weekly charts, the Indian Benchmark Index has been perfectly moving as per the Elliot's and Fibonacci's rules. 

Ever since January 2012, when Nifty showed it's first sign of an uptrend, it never deviated from the Retracement levels of the previous downtrend which arose due to the world wide recession. In just a span of an year, i.e. Nov 2010 - Dec 2011, Nifty got brutally slaughtered and fell from 6350 to 4540, losing 1810 points. With the piercing line in Dec 2011, index showed first signs of reversal, which later got confirmed by the steep rally in Jan 2012. This rally ended at 61.8% retracement of the previous downtrend and ever since then, time and again all other Fibonacci levels are being tested (see the white dotted lines in the chart).

This up move in Jan 2012, also lead to the beginning of the new Elliot Wave. Presently we are into the 4th corrective wave, which is surely going to be a zig-zag correction. The 3rd wave recently ended with a diagonal triangle formation ( see the white flat and dotted line, Dec 2012 - Jan 2013 ).

Coming back to the sharp rally in Jan 2012, which was our 1st wave, gave correction of 76.4% which ended to form our 2nd wave. If we apply retracement levels in the 1st wave, one will notice that every level of retracement acted as support and resistance, though for a very short time. But once the third wave broke the top of the first wave, we switched over from retracement to projection ( see the yellow dotted lines in the chart ), to know the next levels of our index. These levels were highly respected and were witnessed by the third wave ending with a diagonal triangle and also at 138.2% projection. 

The ongoing fourth wave gave the bounce to test the moving average by making bullish matching lines, at the levels of 5674 and 5678. Once this support is broken we may see Nifty moving further down till 5550-5600 as the next levels of the ongoing wave. Till then the support of 5675 will remain intact.

Hence, all above studies clearly personify our title and hopefully, the future will again let us all signify the validity of Elliot and Fibonacci.



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